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Sarah Palin's Bus Tour: Will She Run For President in 2012?


Will Sarah Palin Run For President in 2012?

For someone who insists she is not looking for publicity, Sarah Palin is once again proving to be a master at getting everyone to pay attention.sarah palin liberty bell


The former Alaska governor has sent America's political media into a paparazzi-style frenzy with her new 'One Nation' bus tour, a multi-day trek to historical sites along the U.S. east coast.


Sarah Palin launched her bus tour this Memorial Day weekend, not on a bus, but on the back of a Harley, with stops in Philadelphia (she briefly visited Independence Mall, the Constitution Center, and the Liberty Bell), Gettysburg, and all the way through early primary state, New Hampshire.


The stops are part of a secretive bus trip to historic sites that has observers questioning whether it’s really a bid to drum up publicity for a 2012 presidential run.


So is Sarah Palin planning a Presidential run in 2012 against incumbent President Obama?


The answer is no. Here are three reasons why.


1. Believe it or not, most traditional conservatives do not support her candidacy.


A number of conservative commentators have responded to Palin's building buzz by rattling off a few reasons the former Alaska governor isn't ready to be president.  George Will is frightened by the notion that a President Palin would have access to nuclear weapons.  FOX News contributor Charles Krauthammer says that although she is a media star and has good political instincts, she is not schooled in policy enough.


Karl Rove, one of President George W. Bush’s key advisors, argues that Palin, who left office midway through her first term in office as governor of Alaska, doesn't have what it takes to be elected president.


Being president is about being woken up in the middle of the night and handed a crisis. "Does anybody think Sarah Palin's ready for that? I don't think so," said David Brooks on NBC's Meet the Press. People may like Palin, and agree with her on many of the issues, but "running for president is not American Idol." Ultimately, people won't think she's qualified to be president.


Wow. And these comments are coming from conservatives. Just imagine what liberals are thinking.


2. She Would Split The Tea Party Vote with Michele Bachmann


So, if Palin does not have the support of traditional conservatives, maybe she could win the G.O.P. nomination with the Tea Party vote, who played a big role in the Republican successes during the last midterm elections?


Palin isn’t the only Tea Party darling in a potential White House race. Michele Bachmann heads the Tea party caucus in the House of Representatives; consequently, Bachmann could count on lots of Tea Party support in a Presidential run.  Though Bachmann considers Palin a friend, she would definitely run against her.


And that is bad news for a potential Palin run. Experts suggest that if both women were to run in Iowa, neither would win the caucuses because they would split the vote of Tea Party activists and social conservatives.


3.  Independents Don’t Like Her, Either.


Karl Rove and others have repeatedly stressed how if the Republicans want to have any hope of winning independent voters, Palin will be a big political anchor around the party’s neck.


She is a candidate of the base, by the base, and for the base and has shown little inclination (as some of her Republican critics have also pointed out) to go beyond her base. If Republicans can hold onto their Tea Party component, rope in traditional conservative Republicans and saw off a good chunk of independents they have a shot at the White House. It is increasingly evident Palin is not the candidate that can do that.


Here is validation of Palin’s weakness among independents:  a new poll finds independent voters would prefer to have Charlie Sheen as President over Sarah Palin. Based on these poll results, if Palin would win the G.O.P. nomination, the only one who should be thinking about winning is Barack Obama.


A Final Plea


Sarah, based on these three reasons it is pretty clear why you should not run.  I certainly hope you do not--  I hate the way the media obsesses over you and everything you do. Ironically, I suppose I am adding to this media frenzy by writing about you. Oops.

So please, Sarah, stay in Alaska. Keep doing the Tea Party Express thing. Make another reality TV show. Keep going on bus tours. But please don’t run for president in 2012.

If she doesn’t run maybe the media could focus on real issues this election, like the debt crisis, the problems with Medicare, and Middle East policy, rather than Sarah Palin’s jogging attire, if she still talks to her ex-son-in-law, or if another daughter will be on Dancing with the Stars.


Contact Erik Uliasz at euliasz@philly2philly.com


Photo Credit: AP

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